"Because the Gallup Poll, despite its reputation, assumes that this November 40% of those turning out to vote will be Republicans, and only 33% will be Democrat. You read that correctly. I asked Gallup, who have been very courteous to my requests, to send me this morning their sample breakdowns by party identification for both their likely and registered voter samples they use in these national and I suspect their state polls. This is what I got back this morning:
Likely Voter Sample Party IDs – Poll of September 13-15Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%
Total Sample: 767GOP: 305 (40%)Dem: 253 (33%)Ind: 208 (28%)
Registered Voter Sample Party IDs – Same PollReflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%
Total Sample: 1022GOP: 381 (38%)Dem: 336 (33%)Ind: 298 (30%)
In both polls, Gallup oversamples greatly for the GOP, and undersamples for the Democrats. Worse yet, Gallup just confirmed for me that this is the same sampling methodology they have been using this whole election season, for all their national and state polls."
So the assumption from Gallup is that more reps will be out at the voting box than the dems, which could be valid but in actuality:
"According to John Zogby himself:
If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000. "
So Gallup is ignoring the facts in order to pump up the look for Bush. The republicans haven't had over 35% of voter turn out for the last three elections, yet they feel it makes sense to have their polling sample at around 40% republican. I'll bet you'd be surprised to know that the CEo of Gallup is a GOP donor:
CLIFTON, JAMES
WASHINGTON, DC 20037
GALLUP ORGANIZATION
CAIN, HERMAN
VIA CAIN FOR US SENATE
06/25/2003 $2000.00
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